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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 13

Las Vegas Raiders 9 – Dallas Cowboys 31

What Actually Happened

(14:14) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith scrambles left guard to DAL 6 for 7 yards (27-R.Steward).

The Three Options

GO +2.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.35 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 13, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 23, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model