Fourth-Down Analyzer
Every 4th-down decision from every game this week, priced in expected points by the same submodels shown on each game's own page, just gathered here one week at a time instead of one game at a time. The objective: see which calls matched what the numbers say and which ones cost the most, across the whole week at a glance.
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Q1 LA 4th & 3 at the 62Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EPp(convert) 55%
(13:40) 42-E.Evans punts 43 yards to SEA 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
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Q1 LA 4th & 10 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 87%
(8:19) 92-H.Mevis 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.
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Q1 SEA 4th & 9 at the 9Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%
(:58) 5-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
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Q2 LA 4th & 19 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 78%
(12:16) 92-H.Mevis 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.
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Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(1:41) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to LA 18, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 19-X.Smith. PENALTY on SEA-41-C.Stoll, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 18.
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Q2 LA 4th & 5 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(1:03) 42-E.Evans punts 41 yards to SEA 26, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
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Q3 SEA 4th & 20 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(12:17) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to LA 18, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-X.Smith MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SEA-83-D.Young at LA 17.
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Q4 SEA 4th & 10 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 50%
(12:24) 4-M.Dickson punts 34 yards to LA 10, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 23-K.Williams.
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Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 26Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 87%
(8:16) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford scrambles up the middle to SEA 23 for 3 yards (0-D.Lawrence).
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Q4 LA 4th & 4 at the 6 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%
(4:59) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 18-T.Ferguson (21-D.Witherspoon).
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Q4 SEA 4th & 12 at the 45 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.85 EPp(convert) 32% p(FG) 48%
(:31) 4-M.Dickson punts 38 yards to LA 7, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 23-K.Williams. ** Injury Update: SEA-42-D.Thomas has returned to the game.
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Q1 DEN 4th & 9 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(13:36) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 56 yards to NE 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
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Q1 NE 4th & 4 at the 86Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EPp(convert) 56%
(12:08) 17-B.Baringer punts 44 yards to DEN 42, Center-47-J.Ashby. 19-M.Mims to DEN 41 for -1 yards (41-B.Schooler).
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Q1 NE 4th & 9 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(6:46) 17-B.Baringer punts 33 yards to DEN 23, Center-47-J.Ashby, downed by NE-24-D.Pettus.
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Q1 DEN 4th & 9 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(2:28) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.
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Q1 NE 4th & 15 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(1:02) 17-B.Baringer punts 43 yards to DEN 42, Center-47-J.Ashby. 19-M.Mims to DEN 43 for 1 yard (41-B.Schooler).
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Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 14Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 95%
(9:28) 8-J.Stidham pass incomplete short right to 12-R.Harvey (31-C.Woodson) [97-M.Williams].
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Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57%
(5:57) 17-B.Baringer punts 45 yards to DEN 17, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
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Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 26%
(1:42) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 41 yards to NE 10, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.
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Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66%
(:57) 17-B.Baringer punts 41 yards to DEN 41, Center-47-J.Ashby. 19-M.Mims to DEN 49 for 8 yards (15-M.Mapu; 47-J.Ashby).
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Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 65%
(:24) 3-W.Lutz 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
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Q3 NE 4th & 1 at the 8Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 98%
(8:10) 95-K.Tonga and 97-M.Williams reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye up the middle to DEN 7 for 1 yard (99-Z.Allen). Denver challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
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Q3 NE 4th & 5 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%
(5:32) 36-A.Borregales 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 4 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(3:59) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 52 yards to NE 19, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 25-M.Jones to NE 21 for 2 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine).
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Q3 NE 4th & 7 at the 28Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 82%
(:15) 36-A.Borregales 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 7 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(14:18) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.
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Q4 NE 4th & 11 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(11:37) 17-B.Baringer punts 40 yards to DEN 30, Center-47-J.Ashby, out of bounds.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 22%
(8:28) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 45 yards to NE 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
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Q4 NE 4th & 11 at the 93Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(7:01) 17-B.Baringer punts 26 yards to NE 33, Center-47-J.Ashby, out of bounds.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 5 at the 28 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 82%
(4:46) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-L.Taylor), Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
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Q4 NE 4th & 9 at the 63 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(3:11) 17-B.Baringer punts 31 yards to DEN 32, Center-47-J.Ashby, out of bounds.