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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 26

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(8:19) 92-H.Mevis 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.70 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 36, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model