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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 20 at the 73

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(12:17) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to LA 18, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-X.Smith MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SEA-83-D.Young at LA 17.

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.79 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 73, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 31, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model