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New England Patriots

HC Mike Vrabel
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2026-01-25 · 15:00 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

NE
59.9%
DEN
40.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.154 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Jarrett Stidham (DEN) -0.000 vs Drake Maye (NE) +0.225 EPA/dropback (DEN starting Jarrett Stidham in place of Bo Nix)
  • NE defense: -0.144 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • DEN offense: +0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NE 24
–
DEN 19
Projected margin: NE by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 21

NE

Harold Landry III LB Out Knee
Terrell Jennings RB Out Concussion
Joshua Farmer DT Out Hamstring
Eric Gregory DT Out Knee
Mack Hollins WR Questionable Abdomen
Marte Mapu LB Questionable Hip

DEN

J.K. Dobbins RB Out Foot
Lucas Krull TE Out Foot
Drew Sanders LB Out Ankle
Bo Nix QB Out Ankle
Luke Wattenberg C Questionable Shoulder
JL Skinner S Questionable Quadricep
Alex Forsyth C Questionable Ankle
Troy Franklin WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 21 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 10
–
DEN 7

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 26 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:24 TD DEN (10:24) 8-J.Stidham pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – DEN 6
  • Q2 02:14 TD NE (2:14) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – DEN 7
  • Q3 05:32 FG NE (5:32) 36-A.Borregales 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 10 – DEN 7

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:36) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 56 yards to NE 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 4 at the 86
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (12:08) 17-B.Baringer punts 44 yards to DEN 42, Center-47-J.Ashby. 19-M.Mims to DEN 41 for -1 yards (41-B.Schooler).

  • Q1 NE 4th & 9 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (6:46) 17-B.Baringer punts 33 yards to DEN 23, Center-47-J.Ashby, downed by NE-24-D.Pettus.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 9 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:28) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:02) 17-B.Baringer punts 43 yards to DEN 42, Center-47-J.Ashby. 19-M.Mims to DEN 43 for 1 yard (41-B.Schooler).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 14
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 95%

    (9:28) 8-J.Stidham pass incomplete short right to 12-R.Harvey (31-C.Woodson) [97-M.Williams].

  • Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (5:57) 17-B.Baringer punts 45 yards to DEN 17, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 26%

    (1:42) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 41 yards to NE 10, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66%

    (:57) 17-B.Baringer punts 41 yards to DEN 41, Center-47-J.Ashby. 19-M.Mims to DEN 49 for 8 yards (15-M.Mapu; 47-J.Ashby).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 65%

    (:24) 3-W.Lutz 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 1 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 98%

    (8:10) 95-K.Tonga and 97-M.Williams reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye up the middle to DEN 7 for 1 yard (99-Z.Allen). Denver challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

  • Q3 NE 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (5:32) 36-A.Borregales 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 4 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (3:59) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 52 yards to NE 19, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 25-M.Jones to NE 21 for 2 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 7 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 82%

    (:15) 36-A.Borregales 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (14:18) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 11 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (11:37) 17-B.Baringer punts 40 yards to DEN 30, Center-47-J.Ashby, out of bounds.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 22%

    (8:28) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 45 yards to NE 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 11 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:01) 17-B.Baringer punts 26 yards to NE 33, Center-47-J.Ashby, out of bounds.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 5 at the 28 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 82%

    (4:46) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-L.Taylor), Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 9 at the 63 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:11) 17-B.Baringer punts 31 yards to DEN 32, Center-47-J.Ashby, out of bounds.