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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 51

Denver Broncos 7 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(1:42) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 41 yards to NE 10, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.77 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 51, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -1.38 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model