4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 70

New England Patriots 10 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(11:37) 17-B.Baringer punts 40 yards to DEN 30, Center-47-J.Ashby, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.73 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 70, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 28, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model