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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 64

Denver Broncos 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 56 yards to NE 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.91 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 64, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 22, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model