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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 82

New England Patriots 7 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(:57) 17-B.Baringer punts 41 yards to DEN 41, Center-47-J.Ashby. 19-M.Mims to DEN 49 for 8 yards (15-M.Mapu; 47-J.Ashby).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.20 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 82, worth -4.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 40, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model