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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 62

New England Patriots 0 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(5:57) 17-B.Baringer punts 45 yards to DEN 17, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.23 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 62, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 21, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model