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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 62

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(13:40) 42-E.Evans punts 43 yards to SEA 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.85 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 62, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.26 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 21, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP