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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 19 at the 32

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(12:16) 92-H.Mevis 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.93 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 32, worth -1.75 EP
KICK +0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.34 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 42, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model