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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 9

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(:58) 5-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.86 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 9, worth +0.30 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model