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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 44

Seattle Seahawks 31 – Los Angeles Rams 27

What Actually Happened

(12:24) 4-M.Dickson punts 34 yards to LA 10, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 23-K.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.61 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 44, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.44 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model