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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 26

Los Angeles Rams 27 – Seattle Seahawks 31

What Actually Happened

(8:16) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford scrambles up the middle to SEA 23 for 3 yards (0-D.Lawrence).

The Three Options

GO +2.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.34 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 36, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model