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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 6

Los Angeles Rams 27 – Seattle Seahawks 31

What Actually Happened

(4:59) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 18-T.Ferguson (21-D.Witherspoon).

The Three Options

GO +2.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.14 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 6, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model