Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 63

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(1:41) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to LA 18, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 19-X.Smith. PENALTY on SEA-41-C.Stoll, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 18.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.24 EP
60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 63, worth -3.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model