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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 20

Denver Broncos 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

What Actually Happened

(12:54) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.37 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 20, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model