Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 85

Tennessee Titans 6 – Houston Texans 13

(7:23) 3-J.Hekker punts 62 yards to HOU 23, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 46 for 23 yards (48-J.Bachie).

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.09 EP
61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 85, worth -4.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model