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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 71

Chicago Bears 10 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(:21) 19-T.Taylor punts 50 yards to MIN 21, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-M.Price to MIN 39 for 18 yards (48-D.Jackson; 21-T.Homer).

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.42 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 71, worth -2.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 29, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model