Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 78

Tennessee Titans 3 – Houston Texans 0

(:20) 3-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to HOU 33, Center-46-M.Cox. 14-J.Noel to HOU 35 for 2 yards (30-K.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.52 EP
66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 78, worth -3.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model