Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 16 at the 85

Detroit Lions 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(8:31) 3-J.Fox punts 55 yards to PHI 30, Center-49-H.Hatten, downed by DET-49-H.Hatten. PENALTY on PHI-54-J.Trotter, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 30.

The Three Options

GO -3.19 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.97 EP
67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 85, worth -5.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model