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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 61

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(8:00) 17-R.Wright punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.90 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 61, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 20, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model