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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 18 at the 53

Tennessee Titans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 25

What Actually Happened

(6:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 2-T.Spears to JAX 48 for 5 yards (98-D.Smoot; 95-B.Green).

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
What Happened
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.53 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 53, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.54 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 15, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.42 EP