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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 41

New York Giants 15 – New England Patriots 33

What Actually Happened

(1:12) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass incomplete short middle to 84-T.Johnson (53-C.Elliss) [51-J.Gibbens].

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +2.49 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 41, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.76 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.69 EP