4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 10

Tennessee Titans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(5:08) 6-J.Slye 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.68 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 10, worth +0.28 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.44 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP