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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 19

Buffalo Bills 23 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:12) 15-M.Prater 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +3.63 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 29, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model