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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 12

New England Patriots 24 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 36-A.Borregales 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.38 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 12, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 22, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model