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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 24

Carolina Panthers 14 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 5-R.Dowdle right end to LA 18 for 6 yards (0-B.Young; 2-J.McCollough).

The Three Options

GO +2.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.54 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 34, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model