Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- LA offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- QB edge to LA: Bryce Young (CAR) -0.032 vs Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.219 EPA/dropback
- CAR defense: +0.081 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- CAR offense: -0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- LA defense: -0.130 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 13
LA
CAR
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 12:13 TD LA (12:13) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 17-D.Adams for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – CAR 0
- Q1 07:46 TD CAR (7:46) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 30-C.Hubbard for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 7 – CAR 6
- Q1 01:20 TD CAR (1:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 12-P.Nacua INTERCEPTED by 2-M.Jackson at LA 48. 2-M.Jackson for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 7 – CAR 13
- Q2 12:54 TD LA (12:54) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 17-D.Adams for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 13 – CAR 14
- Q2 05:38 FG CAR (5:38) 10-R.Fitzgerald 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. LA 14 – CAR 17
- Q2 02:00 TD LA (2:00) 22-B.Corum up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CAR-11-N.Scourton, Defensive Offside, declined. LA 20 – CAR 17
- Q3 08:54 TD CAR (8:54) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 18-J.Coker for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 21 – CAR 23
- Q4 10:03 TD LA (10:03) 23-K.Williams up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 27 – CAR 24
- Q4 06:43 TD CAR (6:43) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 4-T.McMillan for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 28 – CAR 30
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CAR 4th & 3 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54%
(2:44) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to LA 28, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 24Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 89%
(8:50) 5-R.Dowdle right end to LA 18 for 6 yards (0-B.Young; 2-J.McCollough).
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Q2 CAR 4th & 6 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 96%
(5:38) 10-R.Fitzgerald 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 39%
(:21) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to LA 9, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-87-B.Tremayne.
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Q3 CAR 4th & 3 at the 33Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 76%
(8:54) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 18-J.Coker for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q3 LA 4th & 13 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(7:12) 42-E.Evans punts 56 yards to CAR 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 23-T.Etienne pushed ob at LA 46 for 35 yards (20-R.Rivers). PENALTY on CAR-48-T.Incoom, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 34.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 20 at the 39Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 21% p(FG) 62%
(13:41) 6-S.Martin punts 28 yards to LA 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 52%
(6:43) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 4-T.McMillan for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.