4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 43

Carolina Panthers 24 – Los Angeles Rams 28

What Actually Happened

(6:43) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 4-T.McMillan for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.84 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 43, worth -1.83 EP
KICK -0.21 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model