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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 14

Carolina Panthers 14 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(5:38) 10-R.Fitzgerald 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.47 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 14, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model