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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 73

Carolina Panthers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(2:44) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to LA 28, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.68 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 73, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.09 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 31, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model