4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 49

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(5:47) 13-B.Pinion punts 30 yards to NYJ 19, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.80 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.33 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP