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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 64

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(12:03) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to LAC 14, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.29 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 22, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model