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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 25

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(7:50) 38-C.Ryland 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.51 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 35, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP