Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 87

New York Jets 24 – Atlanta Falcons 24

(1:06) 14-A.McNamara punts 55 yards to ATL 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 14-J.Agnew to ATL 33 for 1 yard (37-Q.Stiggers).

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.24 EP
65% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 87, worth -4.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model