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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 65

Tennessee Titans 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 15

What Actually Happened

(9:20) 3-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to JAX 20, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.21 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 65, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 23, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP