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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 26

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(13:08) 4-J.Elliott 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.92 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 36, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model