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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 64

Miami Dolphins 16 – New Orleans Saints 8

What Actually Happened

(9:05) 16-J.Bailey punts 54 yards to NO 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 11-D.Pettis.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.77 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 64, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 22, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP