Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 99

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

(1:45) 11-J.Stout punts 61 yards to CIN 38, Center-46-N.Moore. 15-C.Jones to CIN 47 for 9 yards (27-T.Tampa).

The Three Options

GO -3.78 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.10 EP
60% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 99, worth -6.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model