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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(8:04) 4-C.McLaughlin 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.66 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 7, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model