4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 61

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 20-Z.Knight left end to ARI 39 for no gain (98-A.Nelson; 90-L.Hall).

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.99 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model