Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 71

Jacksonville Jaguars 15 – Tennessee Titans 3

(11:04) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to TEN 28, Center-52-D.Hamilton, fair catch by 17-C.Dike. Penalty on TEN-31-K.Mullings, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.92 EP
63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 71, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model