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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 34

Atlanta Falcons 14 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(:02) 45-Z.Gonzalez 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.03 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 34, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 44, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP