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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 7

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Buffalo Bills 23

What Actually Happened

(10:16) (Shotgun) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 14-K.Gainwell up the middle to BUF 9 for -2 yards (50-G.Rousseau).

The Three Options

GO +3.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.72 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 7, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model