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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 44

Chicago Bears 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(10:06) 19-T.Taylor punts 36 yards to PHI 8, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.10 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 44, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -1.26 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP