Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 73

New York Giants 15 – New England Patriots 30

(7:52) 12-J.Gillan punts 49 yards to NE 24, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 25-M.Jones to NE 37 for 13 yards (46-Z.Barnes; 57-C.Golston).

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 73, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model