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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 4

New England Patriots 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(9:17) 36-A.Borregales 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +3.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.99 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 4, worth +0.58 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP