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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 69

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 31

What Actually Happened

(:50) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert left guard to LV 37 for 6 yards (23-T.Jefferson).

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.09 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 69, worth -1.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 27, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model